NonLeagueHQ’s ELO Ratings
Which non-league team is actually in form right now?
League tables tell you who has the most points. Our ELO ratings tell you who is playing the best football — right now, across every step of the non-league pyramid from the National League down to Step 6.
What does an ELO rating mean?
A single number for team strength
Every team has an ELO score. Higher = stronger. Teams start at at their Step default and their score rises and falls with every result.
Points are transferred, not invented
When team A beats team B, A gains points — exactly the same number that B loses. The total in the system always stays constant.
Upsets are rewarded
Beating a much stronger team earns you more points than beating an equal one. Losing to a weaker side costs you more too.
Recent form matters
ELO reacts to every match. A team on a great run climbs fast — even if their league position hasn’t caught up yet.
How we calculate it — step by step
Gather the ratings
Before kick-off, both teams already have an ELO rating. The gap between them tells us how likely each side is to win.
Calculate expected outcome
Using a logistic formula, we work out the probability each team wins — and the probability of a draw, using a Gaussian curve. A team rated 200 points higher is expected to win roughly 61% of the time with no home advantage.
Compare to the actual result
Win = 1.0, Draw = 0.5, Loss = 0.0. The further the result from expectation, the bigger the rating swing.
Apply home advantage
Home sides get a small rating boost before the calculation — reflecting the real statistical advantage of playing at home in non-league football.
Update both ratings
Ratings shift immediately after every match. Results processed each evening are reflected in our leaderboard by the following morning.
Try it yourself — match simulator
Average ELO by tier
Frequently asked questions
Why is ELO more useful than just league position?
League position only reflects one competition. A team might be mid-table in a weak division but consistently performing well in cup ties against higher-step opposition. ELO captures all of that across every match they play.
Does promotion or relegation affect a team’s rating?
No — ELO carries forward continuously. If a team wins promotion, their high rating reflects that they are already operating at a level above their old division. The rating self-corrects naturally as they play better or worse opposition.
What about newly-promoted or newly-formed clubs?
New clubs enter at a baseline rating that reflects the typical level for their first season. Their rating then moves quickly in early matches while the system calibrates to their true level.
Do cup matches count?
Yes. FA Cup, FA Trophy & FA Vase cup competitions all feed into our ELO. Cup upsets are among the biggest rating swings you will see.
How often is it updated?
Nightly. Results processed by our automated pipelines each evening are reflected in the ELO leaderboard by the following morning.
See the live ELO leaderboard
Rankings for all 48 leagues, updated every night